After playing thousands of shoes of baccarat with my systems, I have developed some specific guidelines about how to recognize a bad shoe early so that losses can be small…and how to recognize a good shoe which should be played until my win goal is reached.
Even if you are not a student of mine, I believe these “road signs” could help you too.
In the biography of the most famous gambler, perhaps of all time, Nick the Greek, I learned a principle about how to test the “gambling waters” …before plunging in and blindly and possibly drowning.
I specifically remember a place in the book about when Nick would enter the casino with the intention of playing high limit baccarat. Before reaching the baccarat tables, which are usually somewhere in the back, he would stop at the craps table and maybe the roulette table, to play a few decisions to see how his luck was “running” that day.
If he did poorly, he might not even stay for any serious play that day and wait of a better day.
When I start a new baccarat shoe (I never advise my students to play a shoe which is further along than 4 or 5 decisions), my first bet is always on the 4th decision.
From there on, I will have another 7-10 bets before decision # 15.
IF the SIGNS (+ or -) in the “T” column of my score card where I keep a running total of winning units won and lost, is mostly MINUS with the PLUS number of units just +1 or + 2, I normally abandon that shoe.
Also, if I lose my first 3 consecutive bets in that new shoe, it is a red flag that this shoe may be 180 degrees out of step with my bet selection.
In fact, if by decision, 11 or 12, I have not won 50% of my bets, I may not need to continue for the next 3-4 bets getting me to hand 15.
I have found it much less stressful and costly, NOT to fight these kinds of shoes which, quite often show their personality or character early on.
If you are willing to risk 10 or more units in whole shoe, by using these very conservative strategies, you may be able to limit those units lost to just a few or even half your maximum stop loss number.
Another thing you could do which would cost NOTHING up to hand 15, is to just “Virtual or Paper play.”
A compromise would be to only make FLAT Bets until hand 15. Flat bets means all bets are the same unit size…$5, $10, $25, etc.
On the other side, in a good shoe, I will typically win 1, 2 or even all 3 of my first bets. The “T” columns signs are mostly PLUS and the minus amounts are small.
This shoe is the one to take advantage of by going for it and not play like a “monkey.”
This could be one of, what I call, a “Shoe From Heaven,” where my HYBRID students and I can win from 100-1,000 units.
If you will read my blog post 2 previous to this one, “Are You Playing Like A Monkey…In The Casino,” you will understand what it meant.
Baseball games are won by consistently making base hits not relying on the home runs.
If you control your losses, the wins will always reward your discipline and patience.
To Your Casino Success,
Dr. Tom, the Bacdoctor